Hotel Cancellation & No-Show Loss Calculator
Calculate your hotel's net contribution loss from cancellations and no-shows after resale and fee retention.
Hotel Cancellation & No-Show Loss Calculator
Distinguish between potential booked revenue at risk, actual recovery via fees/resale, avoided variable costs, and true net contribution loss.
1. Affected Bookings & Rate
2. Revenue Recovery (Resale & Retained Fees)
3. Avoided Cost & Portfolio Baseline (Optional)
Based on your inputs, the selected period had โน50,000 in potential affected booking value, of which โน25,000 was recovered. Estimated contribution exposure is โน17,800 under the stated assumptions.
Policy Scenario Modeling
[SCENARIO]Illustrative fee collection scenarios keep resale volume constant; booking conversion is not modelled:
Assumes no fee is collected. Resale volume is held constant; booking conversion is not modelled.
Assumes 50% of the affected booking value is collected, after the entered fee commission. A one-night fee depends on stay length and is not automatically 50%.
Assumes the full affected booking value is actually collectible. Contract, refund and resale rules must permit the assumed recovery; conversion effects are not predicted.
Use only fees actually collectible under your current terms. Refunds, tax, commission on original/resold stays and changes in guest conversion are excluded; commission on retained fees uses your entered rate.
Scale My Hotel audits cancellation trends, designs tiered deposit rules, and optimizes OTA policy settings to protect independent hotel cash flow.
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Calculation Framework & Assumptions
Methodology reviewed: 2026-10-02 ยท Check your propertyโs source records before deciding
Mathematical Formula
Lost Contribution = Affected Revenue โ Resold Revenue โ Retained Fees โ Avoided Servicing Costs on Unsold Nights
Estimate lost contribution after resold nights, retained fees and avoided variable servicing cost. Policy comparisons are explicit hypothetical scenarios.
Inputs & Variables
- Affected Room Nights
- Booked ADR
- Resold Room Nights
- Resale Rate
- Retained Cancellation Fees
- Refunds Processed
- Variable Cost per Occupied Room
Assumptions & Exclusions
- Affected reservations, length of stay and resale rates are period-consistent.
- Policy comparisons use entered assumptions and do not predict conversion uplift or cancellations.
- Excluded: Not a live platform scan, audited financial statement or guarantee of results.
- Excluded: Property-specific contracts, tax treatment and operational records must be checked separately.
The Real Economics of Hotel Cancellations & No-Shows
Reconcile cancelled and no-show room nights in your MakeMyTrip, Goibibo and other channel records with actual resale and collected fees. Reservation count alone can hide different stay lengths and room quantities. This model uses affected room nights, separates recovered value from avoided variable servicing expenses, and does not assume a market-wide cancellation rate or guaranteed resale.
Calculation Methodology & Distinction
Potential Booked Revenue at Risk = Affected Room Nights ร Booked ADR
Resale Revenue = Resold Room Nights ร Realised Resale ADR
Net Retained Fees = Gross Collected Cancellation Fees ร (1 โ OTA Fee Commission %)
Total Recovered Revenue = Resale Revenue + Net Retained Fees
Unrecovered Gross Revenue = Max(0, Potential Revenue at Risk โ Total Recovered Revenue)
Avoided Variable Costs = (Affected Nights โ Resold Nights) ร Cost per Occupied Room (CPOR)
Estimated Lost Contribution = Max(0, Unrecovered Gross Revenue โ Avoided Variable Costs)
Worked Example
[Illustrative] Assume 10 affected room nights at โน5,000 booked ADR, four resold at โน4,500, โน7,000 actually retained fees and โน1,200 avoided variable servicing cost per unresold night. Fee commission is zero in this example. These figures are a calculation fixture, not a property result or a claim about what a cancellation policy permits.
- Original Affected Booking Value: 10 ร โน5,000 = โน50,000
- Resale Revenue: 4 ร โน4,500 = โน18,000
- Retained Cancellation Fees: โน7,000
- Total Recovered Revenue: โน18,000 + โน7,000 = โน25,000 (50% recovery rate)
- Unrecovered Gross Revenue: โน50,000 โ โน25,000 = โน25,000
- Avoided Servicing Costs: (10 โ 4) ร โน1,200 = โน7,200
- Estimated Lost Contribution: โน25,000 โ โน7,200 = โน17,800
Beware False Non-Refundable Promises
A stated fee is not recovered cash until collected and retained under the applicable terms. The illustrative scenarios do not account for changing guest conversion, refund disputes or demand. Compare policy performance using actual collections and completed stays.
Tiered Deposit & Release Windows
Review release timing, collected deposits and resale pickup by stay date and guest segment. Assess proposed terms against current agreements and refund requirements. This tool does not select a cancellation deadline or deposit policy.
Connecting to Distribution Strategy
Cancellation leakage is closely tied to overall OTA dependency. Evaluate your channel commission exposure with our OTA Commission Loss Calculator and explore our OTA Optimisation Services to establish effective booking guardrails.
Next Steps for Your Property
Whether you want full-service agency execution or standalone self-service operating systems, choose the pathway that fits your operational model.
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